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EC外汇官网：评级下调后美元走弱，白银反弹在即？
2025-05-19 21:15:05

周一（5月19日）欧盘时段，现货白银盘中涨幅近1%。白银价格本周以小幅上涨开局，坚定守住关键技术支撑位，同时美元走软和贸易紧张局势重现激发了避险需求。交易员正密切关注32.80美元水平，该价位与50日移动平均线重合，标志着可能向33.25美元和33.70美元突破的触发点。

信用评级下调后美元回落，利好贵金属

周一，美元全面下跌，在穆迪将主权信用评级下调一档后，美元对日元和欧元大幅贬值。这一决定引发了对36万亿美元务负担及其长期财政可信度的担忧。美元指数兑日元盘中下跌幅度高达0.7%，创下10日低点，而欧元则攀升1.04%至1.1276美元。此次评级下调重新点燃了对美元作为全球避险货币地位的担忧，为白银等硬资产提供了支撑。
贸易政策不确定性拖累风险偏好

地缘风险继续为避险资金流动火上浇油。长斯科特·贝森特（Scott Bessent）证实，特打算对未参与“真诚”贸易谈判的国家加征关税。这是继上个月的威胁之后的进一步行动，给全球贸易渠道增添了更多不确定性。尽管与欧盟谈判取得了一些进展，并与英达成了框架协议，但市场参与者仍对美达成更广泛协议的能力持怀疑态度，尤其是与日本的谈判陷入停滞。

美联储降息预期降温但仍存可能

尽管美联储近期语气偏鹰派，但上周疲软的零售数据和通胀数据仍为今年晚些时候的降息敞开了大门。交易员目前预计降息幅度约为52个基点，低于此前的100多个基点。这种预期的降温进一步打压了美元，并为金属价格提供了潜在支撑。

白银预测：关注32.80美元

白银在技术面上仍受32.19美元至31.45美元区间支撑，下方200日移动平均线31.34美元构成稳固底部。若决定性突破32.80美元，可能推动价格向33.70美元迈进；若无法守住当前水平，可能试探31.34美元。鉴于美元面临审视、贸易政策不确定性上升且避险资金回流，白银短期倾向看涨。交易员应密切关注阻力位触发点和美元表现，以获取方向信号。

分析师指出，金价正处于c浪走势中，预计与a浪走势大致相同，将上涨至3286美元。当前由3251美元阻力位引发的回调可能限制在3,206美元。

即使跌破 3206 美元并随后跌至 3176 美元也不会改变当前读数，因为下跌可能是由于 b 浪的延伸。

只有跌破 3176 美元，才能确认自 3438 美元以来的下行趋势将持续。日线图上，相同的阻力位为 3251 美元，即 400% 预测位。

根据小时图上的读数以及从 2583 美元开始的五波周期已经完成的假设，市场可能会短暂突破该水平并开始下跌。

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