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EC外汇官网：白银多头失去关键技术支撑，价格跌破32.80美元
2025-05-15 16:04:08

周三（5月14日），白银价格遭遇沉重抛售压力，跌破关键技术水平。全球风险情绪改善及黄金市场降温降低了投资者对贵金属的兴趣。跌破50日移动平均线（32.80美元）预示着进一步的下行考验，交易员目前正关注31.00美元区域的更低支撑区间。

美联储降息预期与强势相悖

尽管市场预期从9月开始美联储将累计降息约53个基点，但白银仍难以找到支撑。通常来说，降息有利于白银等非生息资产，但这一逻辑已被更强的表现和地缘紧张局势的缓解所掩盖。近期达成的关税互减协议已将资金吸引至风险资产，而撤出避险资产。

达成的协议包括暂停90天新增关税并调整进口门槛，这推动全球上涨。投资者情绪的改善打击了黄金价格，进而拖累白银同步下跌。交易员如今质疑，若黄金继续走弱，白银市场能否守住短期支撑。

关注焦点：31.26美元能否坚守？

白银跌破50日移动平均线后，开启了测试32.19美元至31.45美元支撑区间的大门。然而，更关键的下行水平位于200日移动平均线（31.26美元）。若该水平失守，市场可能瞄准31.00美元，甚至可能延伸至30.37美元。

上行方面，若市场能回升至32.80美元上方，白银将立即面临33.25美元和33.70美元的阻力。只有明确突破这一区域，才会重新吸引看涨动能，向34.59美元至34.87美元区间迈进。

黄金看跌转向压制白银市场情绪

随着避险需求消退，黄金技术面结构已转为看跌，在跌破50日移动平均线（3,151美元）后，价格向2,787美元的暴跌。鉴于在风险驱动的市场阶段白银与黄金高度相关，即便工业需求保持稳定，黄金的进一步走弱也可能拖累白银陷入更深的技术回调。

市场展望：白银偏向看跌，关注31.00美元支撑

随着黄金和白银均跌破主要支撑位，白银的短期前景明显偏向看跌。只要市场维持在50日移动平均线下方且黄金未能重获避险买盘，白银可能保持下行倾向。交易员需密切关注股市、美联储言论及通胀数据，以捕捉任何可能改变市场情绪或重振贵金属兴趣的迹象。目前，白银多头处于守势，31.00美元将成为下一个关键考验。

市场情绪的改善降低了投资者对黄金作为避险资产的需求，金价处于五周以来的最低水平。

尽管面临抛售压力，但Milling-Stanley表示，他仍看好黄金，而美元似乎并未从近期积极的贸易态势中受益。美元指数已成功升回100点上方，但波动性加剧。

他说：“鉴于目前的政策和经济环境，我不指望美元很快走强。通胀上升、增长放缓和美元走软的可能性将有利于黄金。”

虽然通胀上升通常会迫使美联储收紧货币政策从而支撑美元，但Milling-Stanley表示，目前的环境对美元不利。他指出，经济增长放缓使美联储保持观望状态。但越来越多的人预计，央行最终将在今年夏天降息。

他说：“目前美联储鲍威尔关注的是通胀，但是谁知道当劳动力市场开始放缓、失业率上升时会发生什么。”

Milling-Stanley称，他不知道经济今年是否会陷入衰退；但他指出，最近几个月他频繁地被问到这个问题。尽管投资者的乐观情绪有所恢复，但他预计黄金的避险需求不会很快消失。

他说：“更多的人正在购买黄金，不是因为他们希望金价上涨，明天就可以卖出获利，而是越来越多的人正在购买黄金是为了它的保护属性。长期以来，黄金一直是防范持续高通胀的工具，是防范潜在疲软的工具，也用来抵御地缘动荡。”

北京时间21:39，现货白银报32.297美元/盎司，跌幅1.78%。

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